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The latter will ensure Carey receives gradational royalty on iron ore sold FOB (freight on board) from the Bryah, starting at 80 cents (royalty) when the iron ore price is less than $100 per tonne, $1 when it is priced between $100 and $125, and $1.22 when iron ore is priced at more than $125 per tonne.

Expectations for Bryah have been strong following recent explorations, which have confirmed Valley Bore as being a key target for iron ore mineralisation, indicated by the outcrops of high-grade hematite and banded iron which extend over two kilometres in strike, with widths of 10 to 80 metres.

In 2024, rock-chip assays picked up grades of 64.9% Fe from the Southern Ridge target, while recent assays up to 65.9% Fe were reported from new zones found 3km to the south-west along strike.

CEO James Wilson said all indications for the project seemed promising. “We’re excited to announce the acquisition of the remaining interest in the JV exploration licences, bringing our ownership of the iron ore on these tenements to 100%,” he said.

“The project continues to deliver promising results, with high-grade iron ore rock-chip samples returning assays above 65% Fe – strongly supporting the Direct Shipping Ore potential on a granted mining lease at Valley Bore.”

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“The opportunity is particularly compelling given our strategic location 12km from the Great Northern Highway and surrounded by major players in the sector.”

ALY is trading at 0.5 cents.

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This will be the maiden program for this target, which is located in WA’s West Arunta region. Buxton has earmarked JB Contracting to do earthworks.

The drilling itself will be done by DDH1 Drilling, the company has confirmed today.

Centurion is being targeted on a large-scale geophysical signature defined by coincident magnetic and gravity anomalies, The latter often indicate the presence of major IOCG deposits such as Carrapateena and Olympic Dam.

This anomaly will be tested through an initial 1,000-metre vertical diamond drillhole, and follow-up ‘daughter’ holes will then assess both the gravity and magnetic featuresfrom the parent hole.

Buxton views this approach as one that optimises the initial exploration phase and allowsfor rapid evaluation of the target.

“The imminent maiden Centurion drilling program represents a significant step in unlocking the potential of this substantial IOCG target,” CEO Marty Moloney said. “We are therefore delighted to partner with highly reputable and experienced contractors, JB Contracting and DDH1 Drilling, for this pivotal campaign.

‘Their established presence and operational experience in the West Arunta region provide cost efficiencies and the invaluable leverage of their local knowledge.”

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BUX shares have moved up since the news, and at 10:21 AEST, they were trading at 3.8 cents – a rise of 8.57% since the Oz markets opened.

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Of the updated number, the majority – or 508Mt at 56.8% Fe – falls in the measured and indicated category, while 236Mt at 55.2% Fe is inferred.

Min Res also reported a 73% rise in ore reserves for OIP, which are now 359Mt at 57.5%, compared to the 207Mt previously reported.

Managing director Chris Ellison said the numbers reflected the ‘outstanding quality’ of the project, which is defined as both long-life and low-cost.

“These upgraded figures reaffirm the confidence we have always held in Onslow Iron’s potential to operate for decades to come,” he said.

“Our focus remains on building on this strong foundation, unlocking further potential in the West Pilbara and delivering ongoing value to all stakeholders.

“With the production ramp-up accelerating in recent weeks, we are well on track to establish Onslow Iron as one of Australia’s premier iron ore operations.”

MinRes has been trading at $24.56.

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With the publication of this estimate – which comes in at 63.5 million tonnes at a grade of 30.6% iron (Fe) – Tempest is expecting to move into the development phase of work with Remorse, although exploration drilling will also continue.

The resource estimate itself was achieved through limited drilling work at Remorse, which is located to the east of the Yalgoo project, and was only discovered in 2024.

Managing director Don Smith said this was an important milestone for the company.

“This is an excellent outcome. We have gone from discovery to resource in a few short months – and this is based on a relatively small number of drillholes,” he said.

“We have metallurgical and other studies well advanced and we’ve already identified potential processing options and signed an MOU with GreenSteel and Iron.

“This gives us confidence that we can progress from being an explorer to a developer as well.”

Tempest has been trading at 0.4 cents.

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The company’s planned drilling program comprises up to 15 holes for 2,000 metres, with first assays expected in April.

Located 75 kilometres from Copiapó in northern Chile, Darwin is promising due to the high-grade gold, copper and iron samples that have been found in historical workings across a structural corridor more than one kilometre in length.

In terms of gold grades from the project, these include 247 grams per tonne (g/t), 229g/t, 185 g/t Au and 166 g/t Au. Copper has been measured at grades of 8.09% Cu, 7.78% Cu, 4.75% Cu, 3.43% Cu and 3.34% Cu; iron ore has been discovered outcropping at grades of more than 66%.

Managing director Ed Turner said embarking on the Chile-based program was an important step for Lodestar. “We are very happy to have the drill rigs turning for this important maiden drilling programme in Chile.”

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“Our team remains very encouraged by the numerous historic workings with associated high-grade gold and copper values within the project that have never been tested by the drill bit.

“We have high expectations for this programme and future exploration over the whole project.”

LSR last traded at 1.4cps today – a 7.7% rise since market open.

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The heavyweight mining company has reported an underlying profit after tax of US$10.9 billion and an underlying EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of US$23.3 billion.

The latter was down only 2% from the EBITDA of US$23.8 billion recorded in 2023. Revenue was also marginally (1%) lower, at US$53.6B, from US$54.0 in the previous year.

Given an iron ore price which had been 11% lower for the year, Rio CEO Jakob Stausholm said this was a good result overall, as higher prices in bauxite and LME copper and aluminium had partly offset the situation.

“With underlying EBITDA of $23.3 billion and operating cash flow of $15.6 billion, we are increasing our investments to underpin our plans for a decade of profitable growth,” Mr Stausholm explained.

“We are reporting underlying earnings of $10.9 billion, after taxes and government royalties of $8.2 billion, and a healthy return on capital employed of 18%.”

Rio’s ordinary dividend per share was 402 US cents, down from 435c in 2023.

The mining giant has been trading at A$121.95.

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Earnings and revenue were also lower, with underlying EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) being US$12.4 billion for the period (down 11% from US$13.9B in HY24).

Revenue had fallen 8% (to US$25.2 billion), with BHP explaining that this was due to falls in realised iron ore and steelmaking coal prices, although it was partially offset by higher realised copper prices.

BHP also reported an interim dividend of US$0.50 per share (these are fully franked) – its lowest in eight years.

The mining giant explained that the 2024 calendar year had been one in which weak demand for commodities in the developed world had been a notable trend, and while trade tensions could continue to provide headwinds, rate-cut regimes from several central banks could help stage a recovery, particularly for steel and copper demand across the OECD.

BHP has been trading at $40.80.

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Vale will now provide the funding in two phases, then have the choice to push ahead to a Decision to Mine, in which case it could then acquire the remaining 25% of Iron Bear at fair market value, or carry Cyclone to the production stage.

During the first phase, funding of US$18M would support a preliminary feasibility study, mineral resource drilling, and environmental baseline studies; the second phase would see Cyclone and Vale form a joint venture to progress through a bankable feasibility study, environmental impact studies, establishment of IBAs (impact benefit agreements) with First Nations and generally de-risking activities.

During the second phase, Vale will provide US$120 million in funding to the joint venture, and once this is expended, will increase its share in the project to 75%.

Cyclone CEO Paul Berend went on to declare the company’s key project – located near the Provincial border of Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec – was on the right path in terms of development.

“Project Iron Bear has now secured a clear pathway to get into production, and to become a world leader for the supply of low-cost and ultra-low carbon iron ore products,” he said.

“Vale dominates the rapidly growing market for low carbon and direct reduction iron ore products and is an ideal partner and future operator for the Iron Bear project.”

CLE shares last traded at 5.9c, a 1.72% increase since market open.

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During the quarter, 6M wet metric tonnes (wmt) were mined from Onslow, for an overall production total of 8M wmt across this project, plus the Pilbara and Yilgarn hubs, and total shipments of 5.2M wmt.

The company’s ramp-up program at Onslow is also on track, with quarterly activities including the MinRes’ jumbo road train fleet commencing its use of the 150-kilometre haul road, and a third transhipper starting work at the Port of Ashburton in October, as the company anticipates the arrival of a fourth in February.

In lithium, MinRes saw quarterly spodumene production of 136,000 dmt across all three sites – Mt Marion, Wodgina and Bald Hill; shipments reached 143,000 dmt.

The company noted Bald Hill had been placed under care and maintenance in November.

The main quarterly developments in its energy division were its transaction with Hancock concerning MinRes’ oil assets in the Perth Basin and Carnarvon Basin – with the deal totalling up to $1.1B.

This resulted in the sale of 100% of EP 368 and 426 to Hancock on December 18, with an initial consideration of $780 million being received.

MinRes has been trading at $36.25.

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The company shipped 49.4Mt in the second quarter of FY25 to make up those numbers, also noting a 10% fall in the cost of hematite C1 – now set at US$18.24/wet metric tonne (wmt) – compared to Q1 F25.

Average revenue from hematite was US$87/dry metric tonne (dmt) for the quarter, this being 85% of the average Platts 62% CFR Index. Additionally, concentrate revenue from Iron Bridge was US$117/dmt – 99% of the average Platts 65% CFR Index and 113% of the average Platts 62% CFR Index.

The numbers have been quite impressive for the period, Fortescue CEO Dino Otranto declared after the Thursday update release.

“It’s been an outstanding operating performance in the quarter, with iron ore shipments of 49.4 million tonnes contributing to our highest-ever half-year shipments of 97.1 million tonnes,” Mr Otranto said.

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“We achieved this while maintaining our focus on safety, as well as driving costs lower.“Our decarbonisation plan is also making progress with a major heavy mobile equipment contract awarded to XCMG during the quarter, which will support the transition of our diesel mining fleet to zero emissions by 2030.”

FMG shares fell after the news. At 10:38 they were trading at $18.93; a 0.53% drop.

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The Australian Financial Review cited Bloomberg as the main originator of the news – in addition to others close to the issue – saying that ‘Rio and Glencore have recently held early-stage talks about a deal’.

The Fin acknowledged that a potential arrangement of this kind would put pressure on another mining titan, BHP Group Ltd, which leads the industry, followed by Rio.

The two companies are valued at $US126 billion and $US103 billion respectively.

It’s unclear what the deal could mean for the Australian market, but one area to watch may be short interest against Rio shares on the ASX. Currently, Rio shares are shorted in total to 7.24%, and this trend has been steadily climbing for a year.

Other factors to consider are growing interest in copper, with both companies holding impressive portfolios of the red metal, which is set to play an essential role in the green economy.

At 4.34pm AEDT, Rio shares were at $118.46 – down 0.96%.

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The application was accepted by the Japanese Patent Office in December 2024, and it specifically covers Hazer’s use of iron ore as a catalyst in the production of hydrogen from methane or natural gas.

Given the company’s involvement with Chubu Electric and Chiyoda Corporation in a commercial project, plus its strategic partnership with Mitsui for graphite market development – amongst other engagements on the ground – this decision further consolidates Hazer’s status in Japan.

CEO and MD Glenn Corrie said the Japanese patent achievement would help the company connect its technology to this important market.

“Japan is an important and strategic market for Hazer and our proprietary technology offers an attractive solution to locally produce low-cost, low-carbon hydrogen, using existing supply chains and infrastructure,” he said.

“We have strong and long-standing partnerships with several tier-one corporations in Japan and a growing pipeline of other potential customers in key industries.

“Securing this important IP protection in Japan ensures we maintain a leading position in methane pyrolysis and the production of low-cost clean hydrogen and graphite with our proprietary technology.”

Hazer has been trading at 35 cents.

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These acquisitions comprise the historic Beebynganna Hills iron ore project and an exploration tenement close to Beebyn-W11 – both are subject to grant.

Beebynganna Hills was acquired from Spartan Resources Ltd, and previous exploration there under Giralia Resources NL has indicated the presence of hematite grading up to 65% Fe, with this located only 18 kilometres from Iron Ridge and 13 kilometres from Beebyn-W11.

Proximity from current operations is also relevant for the second tenement – dubbed Beebyn North – which represents a strategic position at the northeast end of the Weld Range, approximately 14 kilometres from Beebyn-W11.

Fenix’s executive chairman John Welborn said these pickups represent the company’s dedication to exploring and mining the iron ore in this region.

“Fenix has demonstrated the extraordinary value that we can unlock from the iron ore deposits of the Weld Range,” he said.

“Since 2020, we have mined more than six million tonnes of high-quality iron ore products from our Iron Ridge Iron Ore Mine, generating more than $800 million in revenues.

“Historic exploration activity in the Weld Range has identified numerous high-quality iron ore deposits and the expansion of Fenix’s regional footprint is a priority to support our plans to continue to grow production volumes.

“We are committed to unlocking the full potential of the region’s iron ore assets for the benefit of all our stakeholders.”

Fenix has been trading at 26.5 cents.

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This produced readings of up to 2,794 parts per million (ppm) in total rare earth oxides (TREO) in the first target area. All up, 76 readings were taken.

This target centres on the Wallumbulla Formation, where white to light grey, fine-grained sediments have been identified as prospective for REE mineralisation. This view was vindicated by the exploration program, which showed that of 67 samples, 14 held over 100 ppm TREO.

A second target focuses instead on base metal potential around the also fine-grained iron rich sediments of the project’s underlying Ronlow Beds. Five rock samples were taken from the site, revealing the presence of zinc (Zn), cobalt (Co), barium (Ba), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and neodymium (Nd).

For each commodity, the readings showed 424ppm to 1,000ppm Zn, 264ppm and 1,112ppm Co, 177ppm to 713ppm Ba, 39.01% to 49.57% Fe, 76ppm to 1,624ppm Mn, and 263ppm Nd.

ActivEx managing director Mark Derriman said the results showed potential for both REEs and base metals along a considerable strike length at Aranac.

“The REE analysis of 2,794ppm from only a handful of samples is very encouraging along with the two-to-three metre thickness of the host clayey sediments,” he said.

“The adjacent outcropping limonite-stained metasediments with Co to 1,112ppm and Zn to 1,000ppm are of interest in that they may be the surface expression of sulphide mineralisation at depth.

“The high iron content indicates drone/airborne magnetics could be a very useful exploration tool.”

ActivEx shares shifted upwards on the news, and by 13:23 AEDT, they were trading at 1.6 cents – a rise of 23.08% since the market opened.

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The company has received commitments from existing and new wholesale investors for a Placement of new shares priced at 13 cents each, with 4,615,385 of these to be issued on November 22.

The offer price represents an 8% premium to the last close price for AKORA shares.

Key feasibility initiatives to be bolstered by the capital raising include the development of a Bekisopa to Satrokala access road, land accessibility determinations and confirmation of the optimum road route for the project, an Environment and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), and evaluations for the haul road and port.

Outside of feasibility on Bekisopa, AKORA is also planning the acquisition of a neighbouring tenement, with some of the funds going towards the government title processes and legal documentation needed for this.

Managing director and CEO Paul Bibby said the placement had been strategically planned to boost work on the project.

“With encouraging engagement with the Madagascan Mining Minister ongoing and the Pre-Feasibility Study coming together well for a first quarter 2025 release, it was decided to raise a small quantity of funds to progress several of the longer lead-time community engagement initiates to ensure the Bekisopa DSO start-up project will be ready for development,” he said.

AKORA shares rose on the news, and at 12:49 AEDT, they were trading at 13 cents – a rise of 8.33% since the market opened.

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Firstly, the Federal Reserve in the USA made a 50bps jumbo interest rate cut, which set off a risk on rally in many markets.

While there remains risk from the US slowdown, the loosening of rates has set off a great rotation in global markets to prepare for a weaker US dollar.

This signals a period where the US economy is slowing, but global liquidity is loosening. 

Rates are going down, Figure 1.

There are risks of a US recession.

However, emerging market economies that were squeezed by high interest rates, will now see looser conditions.

Secondly, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) finally stepped up with a package of stimulus measures to support recovery.

The market reaction for China sensitive stocks was immediate.

Luxury stocks in Europe soared on a possible bling-led recovery on the China High Street and Australian iron ore miners shot the lights out, went through the ceiling, flew across the nation, and ruined a Sydney/Perth/Brisbane/Melbourne/Adelaide/Darwin day for those caught short!

Using our trusty unrealized profit and loss indicator, we can estimate which investors have been made whole on their positions, by the recent market move, and which investors are still nursing losses.

The picture for the top ASX-listed names, along with Brazil-listed major Vale is improving, Figure 3.

The steel makers Bluescope Steel (ASX:BSL) and Bisalloy (ASX:BIS) are doing well.

This is due to cheaper steelmaking input costs, and their largely Western market exposure.

Note that Fortescue (ASX:FMG) and Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) are still in mild bear territory, with investors nursing unrealized losses of -5.5% and -9.9% respectively.

Look for a test of confidence at $21.26 for FMG and $54.51 for MIN.

Investors still seem to be favouring BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO).

The cash costs for BHP are the best, followed by Fortescue and Rio, Figure 4.

Expect the smaller names to perform in line with their breakeven costs once the iron price rallies out of the danger zone below $US100/mt.

We have just been through a major market panic over the iron ore price falling back towards the Australian Treasury forecast of $US60/mt.

Never say never, but our recent research suggests that this price is too low.

The key reason is that China is perhaps more dependent on imported iron ore than may have been previously thought.

Furthermore, our estimates of the average grade of crude ore in China have been revised down from a former 30% to a figure more like 15%.

The reason for this change lies in a reporting anomaly buried in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data from China.

The two steep lines below show the raw data from Chinese domestic iron ore production from the NBS, and the World Steel Association (WSA).

The lower lines restate this to a useable ore grade (62% Fe). This adjustment was first carried about by UN agency UNCTAD, and later refined by the WSA, Figure 5.

Don’t be giving up on China yet, because of the stimulus, and don’t be giving up on the lucky country trading partner from which it buys the bulk of its iron ore requirement.

You see, because of the above data anomaly the official market share of Chinese ore for world use looks like 40%.

Once you adjust properly for the lower grade it is more like 10%. The Chinese need our ore, and we could do with the cash if we are sensible enough to put the stuff on a boat and sell it to them.

The global Australian iron ore market share is considerably more robust when you make these adjustments, Figure 6.

We continue to like the majors BHP Group and Rio Tinto. The first for lower costs, and the second for its superior growth exposure and the geopolitical hedging provided by their Simandou project.

The geopolitics today is fraught. The USA is clearly pressuring Australia to not sell minerals to China, which is fine for them, but bad for us.

Rio Tinto, in Guinea, West Africa, and Vale, in Brazil, provide natural hedges to the risk that Australia loses its greatest and most valuable export market.

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Futures suggests it’ll rise another 0.18% this morning.

While unloved iron ore miners were back in favour late last week after China’s stimulus announcements, oil is in focus as conflict intensifies in the Middle East.

And there were mixed results on Wall Street on Friday – only the Dow Jones moved up – to the tune of .3 per cent and again to a new record.

Having said that, all US indexes were solidly ahead for the week.

On the ASX today: Two large shareholders in Pacific Smiles (ASX:PSQ) are rejecting a takeover bid by Genesis Capital, meaning the condition of 90% acceptance can’t be met. The cash and scrip offer was equivalent to $1.90 per share. Pacific Smiles last traded on market at $1.84.

Helix Resources (ASX:HLX) has launched a reverse circulation drill program to explore a copper anomaly it identified earlier this month near Cobar in New South Wales.

It comes after Helix handed down its annual report after close on Friday revealing that it had about $2.7 million in cash available, after making a $1.18 million loss.

Its half a cent share price remains at five-year lows.

And NZ dairy giant Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1) has handed down its annual report, with revenue up 2% to more than AUD$1.5 billion, but it made a net loss after tax of AUD$167 million.

While the company admits that’s disappointing, it claims it has made ‘significant progress’ on business recovery.

To commodities now in USD: Iron Ore has gained strength on the Singapore exchange to be at $102.85 a tonne, gold’s up above $2660 an ounce – Brent crude lost 4% last week, but has ticked up a little to start to the week to just below $72 a barrel ($71.98) and natural gas is just shy of $2.90 a gigajoule ($2.89).

Lincoln applied under the Strategy’s expression of interest (EOI), touting its 1.1 billion-tonne project as a ‘premier undeveloped magnetite project’ whose location – close to a deepwater port at Port Lincoln – and high-grade mineralisation could play a key role in this strategy.

Also central to the Green Iron Project’s profile is growing interest from green steel groups with whom Lincoln executives have met, who are seeking to develop domestic green steel mills.

The Green Iron and Steel Strategy Expression of Interest (EOI) process is seeking to develop a domestic green iron and steel supply chain for the state, and this will include construction of a 2.5 million tonne per annum green steel plant, endorsed by the government.

Lincoln chief executive officer Jonathon Trewartha said that given the project’s parameters, several options were possible for its future.

“Lincoln’s Green Iron Project is underpinned by our magnetite project, which we understand is the best potential magnetite supply source for the South Australian Government’s proposed domestic Green Iron and Steel supply chain,” he said.

“Based upon a review of current data, the project has an aspirational goal of producing 6Mtpa of high-quality magnetite concentrate to supply both a domestic supply chain as well as potential for export tonnes to the global green steel industry.

“We are also commencing the next phase of our Green Iron Partnering process, whereby we are seeking to engage with both domestic and global steel industry participants who seek to partner with Lincoln to develop this project.”

AS part of its submission to the state government, Lincoln highlighted its assembling of a working group dedicated to analysing the project, who have defined it as the best undeveloped magnetite project in the region, citing its infrastructure and location, generation scale, and in particular its capacity to produce a clean, high-quality concentrate.

Lincoln has been trading flat today at 0.6 cents.

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The Nasdaq performed well overnight, picking up 0.9%, driven by Oracle’s 11.5% rise based on better than predicted earnings and a new deal with Amazon.

The S&P500 gained 0.4%, but the Dow Jones lost about a quarter of a per cent (0.23%).

US Vice President Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump in a debate live on America’s ABC. That’ll start at 11am Australian eastern states time, 10.30am Adelaide time or 9am if you’re in Perth.

To ASX company news now: Data centre play NextDC (ASX:NXT) is raising $550 million through a placement and $200 million through a share purchase plan, for its Asian market growth ambitions.  The raise is priced at $17.15.

Telecommunications company Swoop (ASX:SWP) has grabbed a 16.9% stake in Vonex (ASX:VN8) for an average 4 cents per share, or a total $2.45 million.

And Bloomberg reports Australian real estate platform operator REA Group (ASX:REA) has begun takeover talks with UK portal, Rightmove.

To commodities in US dollars now: Gold rallied to $2517 an ounce, iron ore’s at $91 a tonne on the Singapore Exchange.

Natural gas gained 3% to $2.23 a gigajoule and brent crude lost the same to be under $70 a barrel ($69.66).

One Aussie dollar is buying 66.5 US cents.

FMG’s underlying EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) came in at US$10.7 billion – a 7% rise from FY23 – reflecting iron ore shipments of 191.6 million tonnes (Mt) during the same period.

The company also reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$5.7 billion, plus earnings per share of US$1.85 (A$2.82).

Chief Executive Officer Dino Otranto said FY24 had been a year of achievements for FMG.

“The team has delivered another year of outstanding performance contributing to the third highest earnings in Fortescue’s history and free cash flow of US$5.1 billion,” he said.

“We celebrated a number of significant milestones including first ore from the Flying Fish and Hall Hub deposits as well as the commissioning of our gaseous and liquid hydrogen plant which is the largest of its kind on a mine site in Australia.

“We will use the hydrogen from this plant for our Green Metal Project, which we commenced works on earlier this month.

“Reflecting our ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder returns, the Board has declared a fully franked final dividend of A$0.89 per share, bringing total dividends declared for FY24 to A$1.97 per share. This represents a 70 per cent payout of net profit after tax.”

FMG shares rose half a percent on the news. At 10:48 AEST, they were trading at $18.72, a rise of 0.48% since the market opened.