This deal was never really in doubt for the AI-driven sales enablement platform provider, as it was backed by 30% stake-holding institutions – Regal Funds Management and SQN Investors.

Those institutions wanted the Vector cash-out deal, despite there being a higher-priced option on the table from Investcorp AI Acquisition Corp (IAAC SID), that could have seen the company on a path to the Nasdaq. That offer valued shares at more than double Vector’s price – at about 48c.

What disappointed smaller shareholders may not realise (and there are many) is there’s a clear link between SQN and Vector – and I’ll get to that in a moment.

You’d think the 48-cent offer would be a no-brainer over a 22c deal right?

But despite already carrying a huge loss – having bought into BTH at around 80c a share – Regal Funds Management and SQN wanted cash for their holdings, rather than Investcorp’s higher value share-based takeover option.

That option – and the chance of Nasdaq success – is what many smaller shareholders preferred, even though BTH’s management understood that the Investcorp offer provided ‘less certainty.’

The bottom line is institutional investors did not want to accept Investcorp’s offer.

SQN Investors bought at 80c and now they’ll be selling to Vector Capital at 22c. 

Overall, the deal values the company at A$183 million and will see BTH leave the ASX.

BTH is believed to have been one of the biggest AI players on the ASX, achieving as much as 25% of its revenue directly from AI products.

David Keane says the Vector purchase is proof that big U.S. investors will invest into a successful Australian company.

And maybe not all BTH’s knockers might really think poorly of the company and its potential.

Those knockers include the founder of SQN Investors, Amish Mehta. SQN is one of the institutions with the voting power that confirmed the Vector Capital deal.

Case in point: SQN’s Mehta was quoted slagging off BTH in the AFR on December 6, when he said: “Of the 110 investments SQN has made, this is the single worst.”

Well, that was two months after he signed up to work for Vector Capital in the role of MD, and as a member of its Investment Committee.

A committee that already liked BTH enough to want to buy it and had been discussing a takeover since last June.

A committee that must have believed it could make a good buck here and pretty quickly (watch closely because some insiders are thinking this company might realise a far higher value in the number of years you can count on one hand!).

A committee that could get the vote from big institutions with skin in the game – SQN alone was already holding more than 9%.

Mehta is – in a way – both the seller of BTH and buyer. Through Vector he’s now seizing the opportunity that was SQN’s failed investment!

Vector Capital – which Mehta now leads – has invested in and sold out of significant businesses, including Rocket Lab USA, which is an aerospace manufacturer and now trades on the Nasdaq making Vector one of the leading tech-focussed private equity (PE) investors.  

As for Regal, which had been a strong supporter of Bigtincan since before its IPO, Keane says: “The common view is that due to the change in market conditions away from growth-oriented tech, together with the need for Bigtincan to continue to invest in AI, meant that ASX institutional investors felt that a strong global investor was needed to drive the company to the next level.”

David Keane and his management team have been promised their roles will continue and they’ll get to guide the strategic direction of the company and serve their customers. 

Keane understands Vector Capital plans to expand the Hobart-based AI team, and he hopes this investment in Australia will continue.

“This deal is important because it shows that Aussie technology can be world-leading,” he said.

“We can build great companies by focusing on the core product offering and can find a way to move internationally from a public company base.

“The deal allows Bigtincan to accelerate innovation and product development without the constraints of public market pressures, ensuring continued investment in AI, automation, and platform enhancements.

“The market is at a pivotal moment, with AI reshaping the future of sales enablement. This deal ensures Bigtincan has the resources and strategic flexibility to lead this transformation while competitors face financial constraints.

“While in some ways it’s bitter-sweet to leave the ASX – I have to acknowledge that Vector Capital’s investment validates Bigtincan’s long-term potential, ensuring it remains well-funded for future growth. It provides certainty.”

Bigtincan has celebrated its share of success in the marketplace. 

Its customers include global enterprises, including 100 of the Fortune 500, from Nike, Seek (ASX:SEK), and GUESS to AT&T, Prudential, Merck, Red Bull, and Starwood Hotels.

Bigtincan has been named in the Top 25 Companies in Sales Enablement for 2024 by The Software Report. And, CEO David Keane was listed as one of the Top 25 Executives in Artificial Intelligence.

Bigtincan is the first enablement provider in the Microsoft 365 “Works With Copilot” app store. 

It has a suite of AI capabilities under the GenieAI umbrella, which spans the entire platform and includes Genie Assistant, SearchAI, AuthoringAI with translation, MeetingsAI, CoachingAI, and RolePlayAI.

Building and growing Bigtincan has seen David Keane and his Board face many challenges.

“Many things would have produced different outcomes,” he said.

“Certainly, the challenge of needing to invest ahead of the market in new technologies, and the results of the required capital raising in 2024, will only be judged in future years.

“It could prove to have been a mistake, however, it could also prove to be the beginning of what creates a significantly more valuable business under the Vector umbrella.”

While investors love to see the value of their shares skyrocket and gain the windfall that can come from selling into a spike or on an upward trend, it may become overvalued in that process and that’s likely outside the direct control of company management.

In the case of BTH, if you got caught in the hype, and you bought at a peak that never returned, it could be a very painful experience. In August 2021, BTH traded at $1.36, with many who purchased during the run making significant returns.

There are also some not-so-happy traders who bought BTH at the wrong time.

For full disclosure. I was one of those shareholders.

So, I guess I’ve been well qualified to write this.

BTH last traded at 22cps.

Join the discussion: See what HotCopper users are saying about Bigtincan Holdings and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: Bigtincan Holdings was a client of HotCopper at the time this piece was written.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

And while some of the ‘headwind’ trends are likely to continue – notably, questions around the strength of the Chinese economy and closer to home, the drag of domestic inflation – there are new ones to consider, such as a new U.S. presidency led by Trump.

At the same time, the drive towards clean energy, and new technological offerings is also likely to influence equity markets, largely on the upside.

Talking to HotCopper, David Harvie – Country Head of Sales for Saxo Markets Australia – reflected on the equity market’s performance throughout 2024 and shared his predictions and advice heading into 2025.

Generally strong returns were the most obvious overall trend.

“Anytime, anywhere, if an investor could sit down and say they had achieved double-digit returns, including dividends, in a portfolio, that’s a positive from an absolute perspective,” Mr Harvie explained.

He added certain sectors – such as banking – had also enjoyed a positive run, but warned Aus equities had also been burdened by both national and international factors.

“There were some headwinds as well: Domestic inflation, which we’re all acutely aware of, [and] commodity prices struggled,” Mr Harvie said.

“Those iron ore prices that we all watch very closely struggled, China has had its concerns, and oil has really gone nowhere.”

Investors should also be aware that the size of the Australian equity market – and what it “doesn’t have much of,” according to Harvie – will also shape returns.

“While our tech sector did really well, it’s just not big enough to have a material impact on the broader returns,” he said.

“If we flip it and look to the U.S. as a prime example, they were two and a half times that – or 25% – and that’s on price, not including dividends.

“Japan was in the ’20s with its accommodative policies, and European defence stocks are another example I’d point out.”

One trend that was likely to continue into ’25 was the strong performance of gold; supply of this commodity remained tight, Mr Harvie shared, expressing confidence in the possibility of silver outperforming expectations.

“The divergence between the two might be worth clicking on,” he said.

“On the negative side, unfortunately, we still see struggles for the Chinese economy and we see knock-on effects from that.

“We see a supply glut for oil – so those more traditional resources may struggle in the Australian context.”

However, a standout trend for investors to keep an eye on Down Under was the performance of metals associated with the ‘electrification of the globe,’ such as copper, lithium, and other critical minerals.

“I think a lot of investors are just focused on the demand piece, which seems to be very strong when it comes to electrification,” Mr Harvie continued.

“Lithium as an example is probably something that one would – also on the flipside – have a look at the supply equation and how that’s playing out.”

Of course, Australian and global equity markets ended 2024 with a striking influence to consider when it came to economic and political shifts, with Donald Trump becoming U.S. President for a second time.

Mr Harvie noted the moves and positioning seen on markets even before Trump’s second term began were noteworthy in themselves.

“Certainly in my lifetime I cannot recall in general media a more active conversation about an incoming President, so I think that’s instructive, and I think that goes beyond the personality, and more towards the potential policy,” he said.

“The second thing [to note] is arguably the ‘smart money’ – institutional money and retail money – has started to position portfolios ahead of the inauguration.

“So we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in Bitcoin, for example, we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in AI, albeit with some pullback with DeepSeek over the last week or so.”

Regarding the knock-on effects to the Aussie market of potential and already announced policies, tariffs with China were pointed out as a major issue.

“If we think about it from an Australian perspective, if all of a sudden an embargo or trade restriction around one of our largest partners China, what will be the knock-on effect for us,” Mr Harvie said.

“That could be quite a hindrance, again, when it comes to our resource-rich market.

“What will be the impact to labour markets is if there’s a reduction in immigration or indeed deportation… that’s something I would point to as well.”

At the same time, some of Trump’s policy pushes – such as the suggested annexation of Greenland – reflected more fundamental concerns about acquiring and retaining essential materials to facilitate growth in domestic energy resources.

“He’s talking about annexing Greenland. Why? Because of that critical minerals piece there,” Mr Harvie said.

“And when you pull all that back, ‘Make America Great Again’ is another way of saying, let’s bring sovereignty back home, let’s bring resource production back home, and make sure we’re self-sufficient as an economy.

“And that’s happening globally. The struggle for the Australian market is we just don’t have the scale to be able to do that – we are so reliant on our trading partners.

“An investor here should be quite careful and sector-specific for the Aussie market, but also as we say… turn one’s eyes abroad and start to look at those other global thematic, [the] industries and sectors which should probably benefit from Trump 2.0, and those other macro-economic factors.”

Turning to trends among global tech stocks, Mr Harvie highlighted the fascinating (or horrifying, depending on your perspective) story of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, whose launch wiped out U.S. technology stocks including sector darling and market-leading marker Nvidia only a week ago.

The issue, he said, was that many of the top tech stocks were not prepared.

“Those stocks are almost priced for perfection… they’re priced for solid growth and lack of a player like DeepSeek coming along, and that’s a mini–Black Swan event,” he said.

“That’s why you saw prices take a tumble very quickly. On the flip side, 48 hours later, a reasonable amount of those prices has been made back.”

But the DeepSeek story might also give impetus to other companies wanting to jump into this space, he added.

“It also goes to the fact that where there’s super normal pricing power, we’re probably going to see – in fact, we’ve already started to see with DeepSeek – some of that attention towards [the narrative of] ‘how can other companies, other countries get in on the act?’,” Mr Harvie said.

For investors, such an event could provide guidance when it came to picking stocks.

“It’s back to investor basics 101: Where am I invested? What assets do I have? Where am I invested globally, and what themes do I subscribe to?” he added.

“That’s a top-down approach. The bottom-up approach is then obviously picking the stocks that live within that and ensuring that those stocks that one has picked represent an adequate proportion of one’s portfolio.

“If you’re over-indexing in Nvidia or whatever the case may be, you do run the risk of the next DeepSeek coming along and mucking around with your returns.”

Looking at the equity market as a whole, Mr Harvie said the keyword – even if it was a tad overused – was “diversification.”

“I think that term gets thrown around a lot, and maybe as a trader or investor, we’re a bit blasé when we hear it,” he said.

“But if we think about it, how that translates is really tapping into what’s happening in the real world. What’s happening in the real world is nations are bringing capacity home, they’re bringing chip-making home, energy production home when they can, and that’s very relevant with large economies like the U.S.

“It’s also relevant in Europe: We’ve seen NATO countries leaning into their defence capacity on the back of what’s been happening with Russia, but also Trump coming in and demanding those countries spend an X amount of their GDP on defence, which is why we’ve seen that be such a strong performer globally in 2024.”

Alongside these macro themes would be the likely vibrant performance in precious metals, and the importance of energy sources and the stocks and sectors attached to that.

“My advice would be [to] go back to macroeconomics, look at those global themes and see how you can position your portfolio to best take advantage,” he said.

“Not just geographically on the map, but asking ‘where can I gain access to those underlying themes?’

“Then, look up and pick some individual stocks or ETFs from there.”

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.